Plastic Pollution: Oil's Dark Legacy

Plastic is a petrochemical, a category that accounts for 14% of oil use. In 2012, plastics accounted for 4% of global oil production, a figure that may have risen to 5%-6% in 2019. In that year, 359 million tons of plastics entered markets around the world, with an average of 35-45% used for packaging. Despite the environmental impact of oil, demand for plastic is expected to continue to grow due to its cost and durability.

Plastic production accounts for 4% of global oil production

The advantages of plastics over alternatives, such as cost and durability, will continue to drive demand for it even as governments around the world clamp down on single-use plastics. While many associate that phrase with shopping bags, single-use plastics also include medical consumables, and these are not going anywhere. The same is true for the packaging of other consumer products such as electronics, but also fruit and drinks. Until we find a reliable and cost-competitive alternative to these sorts of plastic packaging, the point of how much oil or gas goes into plastic packaging is moot.

The World Economic Forum predicts plastic production will double in the next 20 years. "In the context of a world trying to shift off of fossil fuels as an energy source, this is where [oil and gas companies] see the growth," said Steven Feit, a staff attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law, an advocacy group.

Petrochemicals, including plastic, account for 14% of oil use

The advantages of plastics over alternatives—cost and durability—will continue to drive demand for it even as governments around the world clamp down on single-use plastics. While many associate that phrase with shopping bags, single-use plastics also include medical consumables, and these are not going anywhere. The same is true for the packaging of other consumer products such as electronics, but also fruit and drinks. Until we find a reliable and cost-competitive alternative to these sorts of plastic packaging, the point of how much oil—or gas—goes into plastic packaging is moot.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that petrochemicals will drive half of oil demand growth between now and 2050. The World Economic Forum predicts plastic production will double in the next 20 years.

The American fracking boom is unearthing, along with natural gas, large amounts of the plastic feedstock ethane, making the United States a big growth area for plastic production.

Plastic packaging makes up 35-45% of global plastic output

The demand for plastic is driven by its cost and durability, and it is used in a wide range of products, from shopping bags to medical consumables and electronics. Petrochemicals, the category that includes plastic, now account for 14% of oil use, and are expected to drive half of oil demand growth between now and 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The World Economic Forum predicts that plastic production will double in the next 20 years, and the United States is a big growth area for plastic production due to the American fracking boom, which is unearthing large amounts of the plastic feedstock ethane.

Plastic production is expected to double in the next 20 years

The advantages of plastics over alternatives, such as cost and durability, will continue to drive demand for it even as governments around the world clamp down on single-use plastics. While many associate that phrase with shopping bags, single-use plastics also include medical consumables, and these are not going anywhere. The same is true for the packaging of other consumer products such as electronics, but also fruit and drinks. Until we find a reliable and cost-competitive alternative to these sorts of plastic packaging, the point of how much oil or gas goes into plastic packaging is moot.

In March 2022, 175 nations agreed to work together on a United Nations treaty to tackle plastic pollution, which is expected to be in place by the end of 2024. However, without significant policy interventions, the amount of plastics consumed across the G20 nations will hit 451 million tonnes a year by 2050, which is nearly twice the 2019 level of 261 million. It is projected that the global production of thermoplastics will amount to 445.25 million metric tons in 2025. Annual production volumes are expected to continue rising in the following decades, rising to approximately 590 million metric tons by 2050. This would be an increase of more than 30% compared with 2025.

Plastic demand is driven by cost and durability

The advantages of plastics over alternatives—cost and durability—will continue to drive demand for it even as governments around the world clamp down on single-use plastics. While many associate that phrase with shopping bags, single-use plastics also include medical consumables, and these are not going anywhere. The same is true for the packaging of other consumer products such as electronics, but also fruit and drinks. Until we find a reliable and cost-competitive alternative to these sorts of plastic packaging, the point of how much oil—or gas—goes into plastic packaging is moot.

The car lube container market is a good example of how demand for plastic is driven by cost and durability. HDPE and PET are primarily used for car lube containers owing to higher durability and cost-efficiency as compared to other plastic materials. With the rising purchasing power capacity of middle-income households, the number of new cars purchased has increased, which has directly pushed the demand for lubricant, and subsequently the need for lubricant packaging. In terms of consumption, the car lube container market in the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan is projected to register a comparatively higher volume than the other regions, while in terms of production, North America and Western Europe are expected to dominate the global car lube container market over the forecast period.

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