The Ocean's Plastic Crisis: A 20-Year Warning

how much plastic will be in the ocean in 20years

Plastic pollution in the ocean is an ever-growing problem, with the amount of plastic in the ocean set to increase over the next 20 years. While it is difficult to determine the exact amount of plastic in the ocean, it is estimated that between 1 and 2 million tonnes of plastic enter the ocean each year, with a previous estimate of up to 8 million tonnes. This plastic pollution comes from a variety of sources, including single-use plastic items, fishing gear, and microplastics, which are tiny particles of plastic that can be ingested by marine animals. The consequences of plastic pollution are dire, threatening ocean health, marine species, food safety, human health, and contributing to climate change. With the amount of plastic in the ocean expected to exceed the weight of fish by 2050, it is crucial to take action now to reduce, reuse, and recycle plastic waste.

Characteristics Values
How much plastic is in the ocean in 2024 Unknown, but between 1 and 2 million tonnes of plastic enter the oceans annually
How much plastic will be in the ocean in 20 years Unknown, but likely to be more than fish by weight
How does plastic enter the ocean Marine debris, littering, and mismanaged waste
Where does plastic in the ocean come from The Philippines, India, Malaysia, China, and Indonesia are the top 5 countries with the highest percentage of global input
What types of plastic are in the ocean Microplastics, abandoned fishing nets, food wrappers, beverage bottles, grocery bags, straws, cups, plates, bottle caps, and single-use plastic bags
How much plastic do humans use Humans use an estimated 5 trillion plastic bags every year, and less than 1% of them are recycled
How long does it take for plastic to degrade Hundreds of years, and it may never fully biodegrade
What are the consequences of plastic in the ocean Environmental pollution, marine species extinction, health problems for humans and animals, destruction of ecosystems, and contribution to climate change
How can we reduce plastic in the ocean Reduce plastic use, improve waste management, participate in local cleanups, support initiatives and agreements to curb ocean plastic pollution

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Plastic production has sharply increased over the last 70 years. In 1950, the world produced just two million tonnes. It now produces over 450 million tonnes, with the latest figures showing 413.8 million metric tons in 2023. Asia is the largest plastics producer in the world, with China alone accounting for 32% of global production in 2022. North America is the second-largest producer, with a 17% share in 2022.

The production of plastic requires four basic steps: the acquisition of raw material, synthesizing a basic polymer, compounding the polymer into a usable fraction, and molding or shaping the plastic. Plastic has added much value to our lives as a cheap, versatile, and sterile material used in various applications, including construction, home appliances, medical instruments, and food packaging.

However, when plastic waste is mismanaged—not recycled, incinerated, or kept in sealed landfills—it becomes an environmental pollutant. One to two million tonnes of plastic enter our oceans yearly, affecting wildlife and ecosystems. The probability that mismanaged plastic waste enters the ocean varies across the world, depending on factors such as the location and length of river systems, proximity to coastlines, terrain, and precipitation patterns.

Rich countries tend to produce the most plastic waste per person, but what’s most important for plastic pollution is how much of this waste is mismanaged. Mismanaged waste tends to be much higher in low-to-middle-income countries due to poorer waste management infrastructure. Most plastic flowing into the ocean today comes from middle-income countries, particularly across Asia.

Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials, the use of biodegradable plastic, and the development of improved recycling approaches.

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Plastic waste management

Reduce Plastic Use

The first step in reducing plastic waste is to cut down on plastic consumption. Consumers can make conscious choices to minimise their plastic usage by opting for reusable alternatives and refusing single-use plastic items like water bottles, takeout containers, and plastic bags.

Reuse and Recycle

Encouraging the reuse and recycling of plastic products is crucial. Implementing Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policies can incentivise producers to design products with reuse and recycling in mind. Additionally, Deposit Return Systems (DRS) can promote consumer recycling behaviour by offering incentives for returning used plastic items.

Improve Waste Management Infrastructure

Many parts of the world lack adequate waste management infrastructure, leading to improper disposal. Investing in waste management systems, providing access to controlled disposal services, and promoting regular waste collection are essential steps to prevent plastic leakage into the environment.

International Cooperation and Guidelines

International agreements, such as the Basel Convention, provide guidance and regulations for better management of plastic waste. The convention's plastic waste amendments offer a framework for environmentally sound management of plastic pollution.

Focus on High-Risk Countries

Middle-income countries, particularly in Asia, contribute significantly to plastic emissions in the ocean. Improving waste management practices and infrastructure in these regions can have a substantial impact on reducing ocean plastic pollution.

Educate and Inform Stakeholders

Educating key stakeholders, including governments, civil society organisations, and the public, is vital. Raising awareness about the impact of plastic waste and promoting sustainable alternatives can drive behavioural changes and foster a sense of collective responsibility.

In conclusion, addressing the complex issue of plastic waste in the ocean requires a multi-faceted approach. By implementing a combination of these strategies and adapting them to the specific circumstances of each country, we can make significant progress in managing plastic waste and reducing its harmful effects on our oceans and the environment.

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Impact on marine life

Marine life is extremely vulnerable to plastic pollution. It is estimated that between 1 and 2 million tonnes of plastic enter the oceans annually, with plastic debris injuring and killing fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Marine plastic pollution has impacted at least 267 species worldwide, including 86% of all sea turtle species, 44% of all seabird species, and 43% of all marine mammal species.

Plastic pollution in the ocean can impact marine life in several ways. One of the most common and harmful effects is ingestion. Marine animals, such as sea turtles, whales, and seabirds, often mistake plastic debris for food. For example, sea turtles show a strong preference for clear, sheet plastic items, such as plastic bags and balloons, as they resemble their natural prey, such as jellyfish or sponges. Similarly, whales have been found with balloons lodged in their digestive tracts, inhibiting their ability to feed. This can lead to starvation, as the plastic fills their stomachs without providing any nutritional value. In some cases, the rough edges of broken-down plastic can cause internal injuries, a condition known as "plasticosis", which makes it difficult for animals to digest their food and can lead to starvation.

Another significant impact of plastic pollution on marine life is entanglement. Marine animals can become trapped and entangled in derelict fishing nets, ropes, and other plastic debris. This can lead to injuries, loss of limbs, and even death. It is estimated that 300,000 whales, dolphins, and porpoises die each year from ghost gear entanglement. Even the largest whales and the smallest fish are not safe from this threat.

Microplastics also pose a significant threat to marine life. As plastic debris breaks down over time, it forms smaller and smaller pieces, eventually becoming microplastics. These microplastics can absorb and release harmful pollutants, such as pesticides, dyes, and flame retardants, into the ocean. They can also accumulate toxic chemicals, with a single plastic particle capable of absorbing up to one million times more toxic chemicals than the surrounding water. These toxins can then build up in the fatty tissues of animals that ingest contaminated species, leading to a phenomenon known as biomagnification. This means that the concentration of toxins increases as you move up the food chain, with apex predators like orcas and great white sharks being particularly vulnerable.

The impact of plastic pollution on marine life is not limited to direct ingestion or entanglement. Plastic debris has been found to transport invasive marine species and accumulate pollutants, which can then be ingested by marine animals. This has led to the contamination of unique and vulnerable deep-sea communities, such as cold-water corals and hydrothermal vent communities. Additionally, plastic pollution can indirectly affect marine life by disrupting the food chain. For example, seabirds that feed on the ocean surface are prone to ingesting floating plastic debris, which they may then feed to their chicks, resulting in detrimental effects on their growth and survival.

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Initiatives to reduce plastic pollution

While it is impossible to determine the exact amount of plastic in the ocean, scientists estimate that around 1 to 8 million tonnes of plastic enter the oceans annually. This plastic pollution has severe consequences for marine life, ecosystems, and even human health. To address this pressing issue, several initiatives have been undertaken to reduce plastic pollution.

One notable initiative is the "National Strategy to Prevent Plastic Pollution" by the US EPA. This strategy aims to eliminate the release of plastic waste from land and sea-based sources into the environment by 2040. It outlines six main objectives: reducing pollution from plastic production, innovating material and product design, decreasing waste generation, improving waste management, promoting recycling, and preventing plastic pollution from harming human health and the environment. The strategy encourages interventions across the entire plastics lifecycle and invites feedback from various stakeholders, including governments, industry organizations, community groups, and individuals.

Another initiative is the Sustainable Lifestyles and Education (SLE) Programme, co-led by Japan and Sweden. The SLE Programme develops tools and resources to enable policymakers, businesses, and civil society to adopt more sustainable practices. It contributes to the One Planet Network-Wide Plastics Initiative, which focuses on shifting consumption and production patterns towards sustainability.

Additionally, organizations like CleanHub offer plastic recovery programs to help businesses reduce their plastic footprint and minimize ocean-bound plastic. They also provide statistics and insights to raise awareness about the plastic pollution crisis.

To complement these initiatives, individuals can play a crucial role in reducing plastic pollution. Being mindful of daily plastic usage and opting for sustainable alternatives are essential steps. Supporting sustainable businesses and advocating for better policies can also create a collective impact. Participating in local clean-up campaigns, properly disposing of waste, and reducing single-use plastic consumption are other effective ways to contribute.

By combining large-scale initiatives, corporate responsibility, and individual actions, we can make significant progress in reducing plastic pollution and mitigating its harmful effects on our oceans and the environment.

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The economic costs of plastic pollution

While it is difficult to determine the exact amount of plastic in the ocean, it is clear that the amount of plastic pollution is having a detrimental impact on marine life and the environment. The economic costs of plastic pollution are significant and wide-ranging, and they are only expected to increase in the coming years if no drastic action is taken.

One of the primary economic costs of plastic pollution is the impact on marine industries and coastal communities. The environmental damage to marine ecosystems has been estimated to cost around $13 billion annually. This includes costs associated with clean-up operations, litter removal, and the impact of invasive alien species that live on floating plastic debris. The presence of plastic debris in the ocean can also deter tourists, leading to losses in the tourism industry. For example, a single marine litter incident in South Korea resulted in a revenue loss of approximately €29 million ($34 million) due to a decrease in visitors.

Countries that heavily rely on coastal tourism or the fishing industry are particularly vulnerable to the economic consequences of marine plastic pollution. The Asia-Pacific region, for instance, incurs about €1 billion ($1.17 billion) in costs each year due to plastic pollution. Additionally, microplastics, which are tiny particles that break off from larger plastic fragments or are engineered for consumer products, pose a significant concern. These particles can absorb harmful pollutants and release them into the ocean, further damaging marine ecosystems and potentially entering the food chain.

The costs of dealing with plastic pollution are often borne by coastal municipalities, governments, and local communities, who must fund clean-up operations, awareness campaigns, and education initiatives. Furthermore, the mismanagement of plastic waste, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries, contributes significantly to ocean plastic pollution. These countries often lack the necessary waste management infrastructure, leading to improper disposal and increased pollution. Improving waste management practices and reducing plastic consumption are crucial steps in mitigating the economic and environmental costs of plastic pollution.

The economic impact of plastic pollution extends beyond the immediate costs of clean-up and mitigation. Plastic pollution can also lead to a rethinking of economic models and consumption patterns. As noted by researcher Judith Schäli, the massive scale of marine plastic pollution may prompt a reconsideration of our disposable lifestyles and a shift towards more sustainable practices. While addressing plastic pollution requires significant time, effort, and financial investment, the cost of inaction will be far greater in the long run.

Frequently asked questions

While it is difficult to determine the exact amount of plastic in the ocean, it is estimated that around 1 to 2 million tonnes of plastic enter the ocean each year.

Plastic in the ocean has been deemed one of the most pressing environmental issues, threatening ocean health, marine species, food safety, human health, and contributing to climate change. Plastic pollution is also one of the main causes of marine species extinction and ecosystem destruction.

The majority of plastic pollution in the ocean is caused by littering and improper disposal of plastic items such as food wrappings, plastic bags, razors, and bottles. Lost fishing gear, also known as ghost gear, accounts for about 20% of all marine plastic.

Reducing plastic use and improving waste management practices are crucial. This includes recycling, reusing, and properly disposing of plastic waste to prevent it from ending up in the ocean. Initiatives such as grassroots beach clean-ups and international agreements, like the United Nations Environment Assembly's treaty to end plastic pollution, are also important steps towards tackling this issue.

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